New data on the rockets fired by Hamas during Operation Cast Lead indicate that Israel's ground presence and aerial attacks have partially damaged Hamas' rocket-launching capability. However, the Israel Defense Forces has not critically impaired Hamas' ability to launch rockets.
The Shin Bet security service said yesterday that Palestinians fired 530 rockets at Israel in the first 16 days of fighting in Gaza, and another 40 in the last two days - an average of 30 rockets a day, though the peak figure was 74 on the third day of the war. Most of the rockets are home-grown Qassams with a range of 7 kilometers. About 60 of the rockets that have been fired, or 12 percent, are Katyushas (Grads), most of which have been smuggled in through underground tunnels. Those are the rockets that are hitting Ashkelon, Ashdod, Be'er Sheva and Gedera.
Over the past nine days, Hamas has continued firing rockets, an average of about 20 a day. This shows the Hamas military wing is functioning, giving orders to its fighters and maintaining its rocket capability. Although the Shin Bet did not provide its own assessment, reports from several sources indicate that Hamas has smuggled a total of 150 Katyushas, leaving it with about 100, though possibly more - enough to last for two weeks of rocket fire.
The ground incursion has not significantly changed the face of the war, certainly as long as the IDF is not ordered to recapture Gaza, which does not look likely. Israel wants to prevent its own human losses and thus makes extensive use of firepower, which causes many civilian casualties and damage to property. Israel is eager to engage Hamas fighters in battle, while Hamas wishes to reserve its force for a decisive battle or the war's aftermath. But the IDF has not made impressive strides in creative psychological warfare by, for example, using its special forces to abduct Hamas military leaders and present them befor the cameras.
Under such circumstances, it would have been better for Israel to agree to the UN cease-fire proposal, even though it turned out that Hamas rejected it. Israel could have won sympathy and been portrayed as not over eager to sow death and destruction, while still continuing to fight the war.
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