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27/01/2009 | Al Manar
Former CIA Operative Robert Baer said there was an American military veto in attacking Iran, dismissing what some analysts believe that Israel’s wars on Lebanon and Gaza would end with attacking Iran.
Speaking to the Inter Press Service News Agency, Baer discussed the repercussions of such an attack on the region. He said that “there will be an Iranian reaction in the Gulf. Iran will not be attacked like Hamas and just respond locally. It will respond internationally. It has no choice. This is their deterrence power. In Iran, it is very important to understand a lot of lessons.”
YOU CAN’T WIN WARS OF ATTRITION WITH IRANIANS
“If you look on the IRGC [Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps] website, you see the lessons they learned from the Iran-Iraq War. These wars are wars of attrition; they go on forever. You just can't win them, especially against the United States. So they have developed secondary asymmetrical warfare ability, guerilla warfare, which is very effective,” Baer said.
PASDARAN PROBABLY MOST CAPABLE GUERILLA FORCE
The former CIA operative explained that in his own experience, the Pasdaran (Revolutionary Guards) has some of “the best minds in Iran” and they are “on the operational level, are probably the most capable, intelligent/guerilla force/political thinkers in the Middle East, including Israel and Jordan. And they knew exactly what they were doing. And they do not clearly fit in to any political definitions in Iran.”
THERE IS BALANCE OF POWER BETWEEN IRAN & US IN MIDEAST
Baer also ruled out a limited attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities by Israel adding that “even Bush understood this.”
“The New York Times is right when it says that Bush vetoed an Israeli attack, simply because there is a balance of power in the Middle East between the U.S. and Iran, and it's a fairly even balance of power. I mean not in terms of aircraft tanks or submarines, but in a monopoly of violence, there is equality. There is no question there is equality. We could bomb Tehran, but what does that get you? Nothing. It's sort of like bombing the U.N. compound in Gaza by Israel. What does that give the Israelis? Nothing. Yes they could destroy it, but what does that give them? Hamas still is going to exist.”
Baer further said that Iran, in case of an attack, would still have to project power and project its will. “And Iran's power is so economical, the price of oil is not going to make any difference, simply because the idea of arming Hezbollah or supporting Hamas in Damascus is nothing in terms of money. I mean the price of oil could go down to 10 dollars, and it's still an affordable defense for Iran.”
US CAN’T DO ANYTHING IN MIDEAST WITHOUT TEL AVIV APPROVAL
On US President Barak Obama’s will to talk to the Iranians in the framework of changing the US foreign policy, and his designation of Dennis Ross as key advisor on Iran policy, Baer underlined that the important thing “is the Israelis are comfortable with him (Ross).”
“If a dialogue with Iran occurs, they know he won't betray them...If a dialogue is open, the Israelis know they won't be surprised. If Obama had brought someone new in, some professor from Harvard that the Israelis didn't know, they would immediately freeze him out and there would be huge political blowbacks.”
“Obama needs the backing of the Democratic Party to get these things through politically, and that's why he has brought in people like Dennis Ross and Denny Blair, the Director of National Intelligence, simply because he needs that political backing...In American politics, you can't do anything in the Middle East without the approval of Tel Aviv, at least on some level. It's impossible. I mean, I cannot think of a country that is so beholden to a small country like this, even a superpower, in all of history. I can't even think of it.”
Baer explained his view and set the American state of New York.
“Look at New York City. Look at the major newspapers. They have a Zionist agenda. They do. I'm not Jewish. I'm not anything. I don't care about the Israelis. And I'm not anti-Semitic. It's just a fact. I suggested to my publisher writing a book on Israel, and he said forget it. You can't talk about the reality of Israel. The only place you can talk about the reality of Israel is in Israel. They tell you things you will never hear in the United States...For instance, why are people on Gaza so unhappy? Well, if you had to live in a prison, wouldn't you be unhappy? You would never get that in the New York Times. Look at the New York Times; it's almost an extension of Israel.”
The Former CIA operative stressed Hamas was not destroyed in the Israeli war on Gaza adding that Fatah was the party that has lost in the war. “No, it's impossible. Hamas is an idea. Hamas is not an organization. And unless the Israelis go in and force 1.5 million people into Egypt, they will never subdue Gaza. They can go in and they can slaughter the leadership and put 10,000 people in jail, and Hamas will come out stronger. The losers in this will be Fatah.
SAYYED NASRALLAH HAS REDEFINED ISLAMIC POLITICS
Baer expressed his view about the main characteristics of Hamas and Hezbollah’s military and political behavior.
“They redefined the idea of warfare in geography. The fact that Hezbollah dug into caves or the fact that they use fiber optics to communicate shows enormous sophistication and primitive warfare in combination. I mean, what army in the world uses fiber optics except Hezbollah? You can't intercept fiber optics. There is nothing you can do...You look at [Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan] Nasrallah, and he has redefined Islamic politics because he's gone into an alliance with Christians. Bin Laden wants to kill Christians; I'm going to reduce it to that. Nasrallah is looking at them as allies.”
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