What is in store for Somalia in 2009?

Recent developments:

Pirates seized a Saudi supertanker carrying $100 million in crude oil off the coast of Kenya. Also last September Somali pirates hijacked an Egyptian cargo vessel and only released it after receiving a ransom.

Pirates are demanding a $22m (£11m) ransom for the release of the Ukrainian ship, the MV Faina. The vessel, which was carrying T-72 tanks, rifles and heavy weapons when it was seized two weeks ago, is being held off the coast, near the town of Hobyo.

Nato vehicles, destined for US forces in Afghanistan, were attacked by armed militants in Pakistan for the third time in a week, police said. Nato is now negotiating with the former Soviet Republics in an effort to secure an overland route to supply their forces.

Some Japanese ship owners are willing to go through the Cape of Good Hope in order to avoid the Somali privates infested, Gulf of Eden.

Piracy off the coast of Somalia is estimated to have cost up to $30m (£17m) in ransoms so far this year, according to a recent report.

Egypt and the Arab league fears the sinking in revenue from the Suez Canal because of increasing piracy amidst the global economic downturn.

The UN says militants get weapons from the deserters

More than 80% of Somalia's soldiers and police - about 15,000 members - have deserted, some taking weapons, uniforms and vehicles, the UN says.

The head of the UN monitoring group on Somalia, Dumisani Kumalo, said Islamist insurgents got many of their weapons and ammunition from the deserters.

In the UN report, Mr Kumalo, the South African ambassador, also said most of the Somali government's security budget - supposedly 70% of its total budget - disappeared through corruption.

African Union peacekeepers in Somalia have asked Ethiopian troops planning to leave the capital at the end of the year to help them quit Mogadishu too, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said on Thursday. Ethiopian already abandoned some of their positions in Mogadishu.

Ethiopian soldiers have been supporting the administration ie TFG, but Meles has become increasingly frustrated by feuding between its leaders, the financial cost and the absence of any serious, international effort to pacify Somalia.

Addis Ababa says it will withdraw its troops at the end of December and the AU troops wanted to leave too. The West is worried that the Ethiopian withdrawal would create a power vacuum and leave Mogadishu open to a takeover by the Islamists, who have gained ground to control most of the south and central regions and are camped on the outskirts of the city.

The Arab League Initiave:

Arab League at the level of delegates held an emergency meeting on the 5 December 2008, chaired by Saudi Arabia and in the presence of African Union Commissioner Ramtane Lamamra security and peace at the request of the Secretary-General Amr Musa to examine the latest developments in Somalia.

In a statement issued on Friday, the Arab League called upon UN Security Council to establish and deploy an international force to stabilize Somalia including (AMISOM) and Arab and foreign military units.

Also it urged to expand the mandate of the international force to work for the stability of Somalia and enable them to contribute to achieve security throughout Somalia and make the fight of piracy is an integral part of the process of restoring Somalia’s sovereignty, security and stability.

Saudi Arabia has signaled its readiness to cooperate with the European nations already patrolling the Gulf of Aden.

UNSC Affirmative Action?

The UN Security Council passed a resolution in June allowing countries operating with the consent of Somalia's transitional government to go into Somalia's territorial waters and use force to capture pirates.

On 11 December 2008, BBC and other media are reporting that the US is proposing stronger measures, in the UN Security Council. Partly make possible by the willingness of Saudi Arabia and the Arab League to participate and bankrolled the whole exercise.

Security Council diplomats say an American-drafted resolution suggests countries should be able to pursue pirates onto land if necessary, providing the Somali government agrees.

America's deputy ambassador at the UN, Alejandro Wolff, said that given the threats posed by pirates no stone would be left unturned on this issue. Though it is not clear how much support this proposal will have, from Russia and China - traditionally cautious about interfering in the affairs of other nations.

Somalis civilians will stand to suffer.

If the International Community through the UN, by passing the resolution, gives the green light for the US to lead or initiate another international military expedition, this time in Somalia, the party that will stand to suffer most will be the Somalis civilians. Who will be the watch dog - the UN or Somalia’s TFG, as the US and/or NATO play a lead role on sea, land and air, in the name of confronting the pirates?

Recent history and experiences of Somalia has proven that both the UN and the TFG is not dependable. Somalis cannot count on them, they are part of the problem.

Their moves, will be in namesake, as part and parcel of “fighting against Global Terrorism” – and in practice it will be slaughtering Somalis civilian at will. Furthermore the US may be bent on settling some old scores, where their black-hawks was gunned down. The TFG of Somalia, should stop thinking about, being in power – while allowing wholesale slaughter of Somalis by foreign forces, recently by the Ethiopian forces, now if the TFG wishes, as a recognized legitimate government of Somalia, able to open to the international forces, the slaughter of Somalis, legitimized through the UN by the Americans? Will this be the scenario in store for the Somalis in 2009? What will Barak Hussein Obama do?