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Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Q & A - What happens now Somali's president has resigned?

29 Dec 29, 2008 -garoweonline | By David Clarke - reuters

NAIROBI, Dec 29 (Reuters) - Somalia's President Abdullahi Yusuf resigned on Monday after four years in power and returned to his homeland in the semi-autonomous Puntland region. [ID:nLT23433] Here are some questions and answers as to what happens next:

WHY DID YUSUF GO?

* Yusuf had been blamed for hindering a U.N.-hosted peace process. He came under increasing pressure from Western nations and East African leaders to get the interim government working. A regional bloc spearheading the talks imposed sanctions on Yusuf this month for being an obstacle to peace.

* Yusuf had also become increasingly unpopular with Ethiopia, which sent troops to Somalia two years ago to prop up the Western-backed transition government. Addis Ababa was reportedly frustrated with a lack of political progress at a time its own troops are battling a growing Islamist insurgency.

* The president sacked Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein earlier this month after a long-running rift. Somalia's parliament and the international community backed Hussein, further isolating the president at home and abroad.

WHAT'S HAPPENS NOW POLITICALLY?

* Yusuf is back in Puntland. "I am now back and will stay with my people," he said upon arrival.

* According to the constitution, parliament speaker Sheikh Aden Madobe takes over for 30 days while elections are held. Madobe said he would remain only until a president is elected.

* Some diplomats say it might be better to keep the speaker longer and speed up the creation of a more inclusive parliament, with Islamist groups that have so far snubbed the peace process. They fear that electing a president before a broader coalition is in place could exacerbate existing feuds.

* Prime Minister Hussein wants to bring in moderate Islamists, and more hardline elements if they commit to peace. Hussein hopes this will marginalise what he believes is a rump of Islamist fighters who are unlikely ever to commit.

* East African nations and the international community back power-sharing as the best way to keep a functioning government, while adapting to the reality of Islamist power on the ground.

* Madobe said on Monday the government was open to talks with any opposition group. The umbrella opposition Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) is divided into a pro-peace group known as ARS-Djibouti and a hardline wing ARS-Eritrea.

* Analysts and diplomats in the region say encouraging ARS-Eritrea to come on board is important for stability in Somalia because the government wields little power outside the capital and the seat of parliament, Baidoa.

* The African Union says it is talking with all parties to keep peace talks on track and would encourage ARS-Eritrea to join ARS-Djibouti in the capital Mogadishu as the politicians put together a new administration.

WHAT ABOUT THE ISLAMIST INSURGENCY, ETHIOPIAN TROOPS?

* After a two-year insurgency, Islamist fighters control most of southern and central Somalia and launch near-daily attacks on government and Ethiopian forces in the capital.

* But the rebels are split. The most militant wing, al Shabaab, which is on Washington's terrorist list, is urging jihad, or holy war. Moderate elements in another faction, the Islamic Courts Union, are leaning towards talks.

* A moderate Islamist group known as Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca has pledged to oust al Shabaab from Somalia, accusing them of killing religious leaders and desecrating graves, acts they say are against Islamic teachings.

* There are daily clashes between the two groups in central Somalia and Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca seized two towns from al Shabaab over the weekend.

* The African Union and diplomats in the region say there is growing opposition to al Shabaab and community leaders have begun condemning acts of violence by the group.

* While al Shabaab has become a nationalist symbol as it fights the Ethiopians, some diplomats say the planned withdrawal of Ethiopian troops could take the sting out of the insurgency.

* "Absolutely key now is that the Ethiopians leave as planned," said a Western diplomat. "Once they go, the reason for al Shabaab's being should fall away. The resistance could collapse."

* The risk is that the Islamists and other political camps fail to end their feuding and the Horn of Africa nations descends into another chapter of chaos and violence.

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