Somalia: Yusuf 'Pondering Resignation' After U.S., IGAD Pressure

Garoweonline | 24 December 2008

President Yusuf of TFG

Baidoa — The President of Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG), Mr. Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, is 'pondering resignation' from public office following a meeting with the U.S. government's senior Africa affairs diplomat, inside sources tell Garowe Online.

On Monday, President Yusuf met privately with Ms. Jendayi Frazer, the Bush administration's under-secretary for African affairs.

The meeting was held under peculiar circumstances: the VIP section inside Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, in Nairobi. Apparently, Frazer was on transit through the Kenyan capital and had limited time to meet with Yusuf, the Somali head of state who traveled from Baidoa.

Yusuf was not the only Somali official to travel to Nairobi for private discussions with Frazer, who met with TFG Prime Minister Nur "Adde" Hassan Hussein, also at the airport, in a bid to find a lasting solution to the Yusuf-Nur Adde feud.

U.S. pressure

On Tuesday, a somber President Yusuf returned to Baidoa, home to a fractured and disorderly TFG Parliament.

He declined to speak with journalists and was promptly ushered to his residence, under the heavy guard of Somali and Ethiopian troops.

A lawmaker in Baidoa, who spoke with Garowe Online on the condition of anonymity, said Frazer offered the Somali leader two options.

"Option one was that he [Yusuf] work with [Prime Minister] Nur Adde's government and endorse the Djibouti peace deal," the MP said, adding: "The second option was that the President resign."

According to our source, President Yusuf was given "a list of consequences" if he refused to accept one of the two options, including U.S. government support for sanctions imposed by IGAD and an International Criminal Court case against the ailing leader.

The Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), a seven-member East Africa regional body that helped create the TFG in 2004, recently announced plans to slap sanctions on the Somali president.

'Pondering resignation'

Yusuf reportedly informed Frazer that he would not work with Nur Adde, but "requested time to consult with allies in Baidoa," the MP said.

The Somali president, a former warlord in his 70s, is holding consultations with supporters and allies across the country before making a final decision.

A well-placed source tells Garowe Online that President Yusuf is "seriously pondering resignation" after weeks of refusing to budge under international pressure.

Recent developments mark a spectacular change of fortune for Yusuf, who rode into the Somali capital with Ethiopian military support only two years ago and was touted as the West's man in Mogadishu.

But the West, led by the U.S. government, now backs Prime Minister Nur Adde and the Djibouti Agreement" a peace pact signed between the TFG and an Islamist-led opposition faction, the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS).

The Djibouti disagreement

The Djibouti Agreement has been met with a mixture of limited support and militant opposition since the peace process began in June, when the ARS split into two rival camps.

In November, the Djibouti Agreement advanced to a different stage with the signing of a controversial power-sharing agreement between the TFG and the Djibouti-based ARS faction, led by Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed.

The power-sharing deal gives the ARS-Djibouti faction, and civil society groups, an additional 275 seats to transform the TFG Parliament into a 550-seat chamber.

The oversized parliament will then elect parliamentary leadership, including a new Speaker, before holding an election for the country's next President by January 2009.

But 80 MPs in Baidoa say the TFG Parliament never ratified the power-sharing deal, and accuse current Speaker Adan "Madobe" Mohamed of violating parliamentary bylaws.

This group of rebel MPs, considered the pro-Yusuf camp in parliament, has also rejected Speaker Madobe's assertion that 143 MPs "passed" Prime Minister Nur Adde's Cabinet and have demanded the Speaker's resignation.

On the Islamist side, the most powerful group Al Shabaab has rejected the peace process altogether and vowed to continue the insurgency until all foreign troops leave Somalia.

Scapegoat for failure?

President Yusuf's political misfortune is deeply rooted in the U.S. government's efforts to save face in the waning days of the Bush years.

The use of Ethiopian troops to defeat Somalia's Islamist militia has backfired spectacularly, with Islamists controlling nearly all regions lost before the 2006 war and now poised to overrun Mogadishu.

This failed militarist policy was preceded by another, a botched CIA plot in 2005 and 2006 to halt or potentially destroy the rising wave of Islamists by aiding Mogadishu's hated warlords.

The Djibouti Agreement gives Ethiopia legal cover to withdraw its troops from Somalia, without any mention of the Ethiopian army's alleged war crimes in Mogadishu and elsewhere on Somali soil.

Likewise, the Bush administration will point to the Djibouti Agreement as a formal document calling for a ceasefire " which has never been implemented on the ground " and the timely withdrawal of Ethiopian forces, as stipulated under the peace deal.

It will give Washington, D.C., and Addis Ababa, two allies in the 'war on terror' campaign, a bargaining chip in the blame game for yet another failure in Somalia.

Yusuf, who indirectly opposed U.S.-Ethiopian interests by rejecting the Djibouti Agreement, played into the hands of his detractors, who were desperately seeking a scapegoat for the Somali fiasco.

With Ethiopia announcing withdrawal plans, and Islamists steadily gaining new ground, Somalia is positioned to enter a new era of uncertainty and renewed turmoil.