The sudden death of Malaysia's Deputy Education Minister Razali Ismail on Nov 28, 2008 puts politics on center stage again in Malaysia for a by-election that will be held on the 17 Jan, 2009 for his Kuala Terengganu(KT) parliamentary seat. All eyes are at Kuala Terengganu for now, although by law campaigning cannot start until 6 Jan 2009, after all the candidates filed for contest. Pro ruling party, Malaysian Election Commission has not allowed the involvement of any reputable International or foreign Independent observers so far.Razali, 59, was a two-term Member of Parliament (MP) for KT , but he had barely won for his second term. He beat his two opponents by a razor-thin margin of 628 votes during the March general election. Razali bagged 32,562 votes against Pan-Malaysia Islamic Party (PMIP), passionately called PAS in Malay, an acronym for Parti Islam SeMalaysia, vice-president Mohamad Sabu, who got 31,934 votes. The independent candidate, grandmother Maimun Yusuf, 89, proved to be a spoiler by garnering 685 votes. Without her, the seat may have gone to PAS, as Mohamad Sabu is popular on the ground.
Since the recent March, 0308 General Elections (GE) PAS had joined hands with Anwar Ibrahim led PKR (People Justice Party) and the Chinese base DAP (Democratic Action Party). Together they are called Pakatan Rakyat (Pakatan) or People’s Alliance, which form the opposition in the Lower House headed by Anwar Ibrahim. It is agreed among them that PAS will contest in this tight seat. In the recent GE, Pakatan managed to win 5 of the 13 states. One state, Kelantan is under PAS government and another state Perak, under Pakatan has a PAS Assemblyman as the Chief Minister. Barisan was denied of the two-third parliamentary majority, too. This scenario has never happened in the 50 years of Malaysian history and has been widely accepted as a political Tsunami, where bloggers and the internet have been credited for the success.
The ruling coalition party at the Federal level is the nationalist UMNO (United Malay National Organisation) led Barisan National (Barisan) or National Front.The KT seat is a crucial test for both Pakatan and the Barisan. Both coalitions need the victory to show that they have indeed advanced in terms of voter acceptance and popularity since the March 2008 general election. In particular, because KT has an 88-percent Malay population, the seat is regarded as a key litmus test for Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak, as he is also the incoming UMNO President. In this KT by-election, PAS is representing Pakatan and UMNO is representing Barisan. The norm is that the UMNO President will be the Prime Minister.
On Saturday, 20 Dec 2008 Najib Razak named a former legal eagle as the Barisan's candidate in the KT by-election, Wan Ahmad Farid Salleh. Wan Farid is currently Barisan’s appointed Senator (a representative of the Upper House) and Deputy Home Minister. Wan Farid did not contest in the recent election and he can be a Deputy Minister or Minister by the virtue of his appointment as a Senator. According to the Malaysian Constitution a Senator can only serve for two terms. Wan Farid has been appointed twice to serve two full terms. Wan Farid has to resign as a Senator in order to contest in this coming election. Should Wan Farid lose he can no longer be a Senator and hence hold any ministerial post. It is crucial for him to win, otherwise there can be no place for him in the Government and be pushed into a political limelight until, if another opportunity to contest is given to him, and that can be a big if. Furthermore the situation and location can be very different and winning can be much more difficult.
PAS isn't the only opposition. It is widely believed that the by election is going to be a six corner fight. The Angkatan Keadilan Insan Malaysia (Akim) party is going to place its Deputy President Harun @ Ab Rahman Mohamad to contest. It is said that the 89-year-old grandmother Maimun Yusuf, a textile trader with seven grandchildren and 19 great-grandchildren is going to contest again. Entrepreneur Mohd Azlan Ismail and scrap rubber dealer Isma Arifath Hassanuddin are contesting too. Where these three independents get their money to waste and why is everybody asking?
Balloting is on Jan 17, leaving both the Pakatan and the Barisan with 11 days to get their message across to the voters. UMNO has been declining in prominence, losing thousands of Malay intellectuals to KeADILan and PAS. Hit by internal strife and alledged massive corruption, the bitterly divided UMNO has pinned its last hopes on Najib Razak, the eldest son of Malaysia’s second Prime Minister Abdul Razak. A by-election in Terengganu according to political watchers, could be a tricky test for the ruling Barisan coalition as UMNO leaders in that east coast state is split into factions.
The slim victory in March suggested that UMNO will not have an easy time retaining this seat, in a state that has seen much upheaval and had fallen to the federal opposition Islamic party, PAS in 1999. UMNO infighting in the state also costs it votes in the March election, although it managed to retain political power. Terengganu too, saw a protracted constitutional crisis after the election, when its ruler refused to appoint the menteri besar selected by Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi, despite Datuk Idris Jusoh commanding the confidence of the majority of the state assemblymen.
Instead, Sultan Mizan Zainal Abidin installed his own choice, UMNO assemblyman Ahmad Said - a move, Abdullah Badawi first described as "unconstitutional". But the Sultan won the public face-off and got his way. The resulting UMNO infighting is not yet fully settled, and the state UMNO is not in the good book of their federal leaders and masters according to analysts. Wan Farid, said to be close to Ahmad Badawi’s (PM) family and is seen as a federal man. The Federal UMNO is seen as imposing its will on local Terengganu UMNO, which is still much to the local supporters chagrin and debate.
The by-election coming just before Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak takes over the hot seat as leader of UMNO and thus, Najib hopes to be the PM, leader of the country this could be seen as a referendum and a stern first test for himself, state-federal UMNO sour relationship and the fractured Barisan that he is taking over. As the deputy president of UMNO, Najib is traditionally the head of the election machinery for by-elections.
Despite an eleventh-hour decision to defer privatization of the National Heart Institute (IJN) to Sime Darby Bhd, the debate on the issue has continued to rage on - indicating the high-level of unhappiness over the Finance Ministry’s attempt to raise cash at the expense of affordable public health care. Another deal very quietly put through on the same day – is the RM1.7 billion project granted to Sime Darby Bhd (too) and Air Asia to build a new low-cost carrier terminal in Negeri Sembilan - is also setting off alarm bells.
The two deals, both involving Sime Darby Berhad have raised concerns that the UMNO-led Barisan government is bringing back past policies that relied on mega projects, cronyism and privatization to pump-prime the fast-sinking economy. The policies pursued by his mentor and ex-premier Mahathir Mohamad. Mahathirism include unpopular large-scale sales or privatization of national assets, mega-projects and cronyism to raise funds to prime the economy. Malaysia is on the brink of a full-blown recession that experts believe is inevitable from next year onwards.
But Najib Razak has a personal problem too, perceived by the public, dogged with serious allegations. Such as his intricate relationship and involvement with the brutally murdered Mongolian translator, Altantuya Shaariibuu. Najib Razak’s hands has come under scrutiny of a possible corruption in various high-cost arms deals during his time as Defence Minister. Najib Razak has repeatedly denied all these allegations.
The last by-election machinery headed by Najib Razak was held in August in Permatang Pauh, Penang. That by-election saw opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim sweeping back into Parliament with a decisive victory, putting more severe pressure on Najib to win this coming KT by election by hook or crook, says political observers here.
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